Super 8 Group F (Australia, Sri Lanka, India, West Indies)

[Gurjot95]

Not necessary. With Sri Lanka's 81 run defeat against Australia, India's task of getting above Sri Lanka in terms of net run rate becomes a little more easier (SL at -0.6 and India at -1.575 now). They still have to beat SL by a good margin (25-30 runs or so) and hope Australia beat West Indies by a margin thats enough for them to sneak through. Its not impossible but its definitely tough and a part of their fate will actually be in Australia's hands.

For Sri Lanka, even if they win against India, they wont be through. They have to beat India by a good margin to boost their NRR and hope that West Indies lose to Australia or WI win by only a margin thats not enough for them to beat Sri Lanka's NRR. May 11 is the D-Day for three teams from this group.

I have done all calculations and come to conclusion that if India beat Sri Lanka by 30 runs then they are ahead of them which is very unlikely with the form our team has. Our team will again choke against Sri Lanka.

Margin would have very big if Sri Lanka doesn't lose to Australia by so many runs.

 

[SaiSrini]

@ Friend863: Your calculation is wrong. If India bat first, India need to beat Sri Lanka by 20 runs for them to just sneak ahead of SL in terms of net run rate. Dont know what they need to do if they bat second (heard somewhere that they need to chase the total in 17.3 overs or so). Its tough but doesnt sound impossible especially since we are out of our dreaded 'Barbados' and the pitch will suit our batsmen.

If we do that, then we might just need for Australia to beat WI to sneak through.

 

[Gurjot95]

@ Friend863: Your calculation is wrong. If India bat first, India need to beat Sri Lanka by 20 runs for them to just sneak ahead of SL in terms of net run rate. Dont know what they need to do if they bat second (heard somewhere that they need to chase the total in 17.3 overs or so). Its tough but doesnt sound impossible especially since we are out of our dreaded 'Barbados' and the pitch will suit our batsmen.

yeah mine previous calculations was wrong. Here I have done it again after understanding how NRR is calculated. If India bat first they have to win it by 19 runs and if the bat second the have to chase the target with run rate of 9.5 p.o. Here is list (not accurate)

Target - Overs needed to achieve the target
181 - 18.1 overs
171 - 18.0 overs
161 - 17.5 over

I am sure my calculations is right for batting first but my calculations must be wrong for batting second.

 

[SciD]

Stop dreaming. Dilshan will find form in next game.

 

[sohum]

India is not going to make it to the next round, imo. Dhoni has mentally already left the Carribbean, as evidenced by the fact that he said they had only one game before heading home at the post-match presentation ceremony in the Windies game. I'm sure many of our players are playing with that same intensity (or lack thereof).

That said, this is what'll need to happen from a mathematical perspective:

To beat Sri Lanka on NRR...
India bat first:
India must win by 20 runs or more... this will give IND a minimum NRR of -0.71667 and SRL a maximum NRR of -0.73333

India bat second:
Target 100: India must chase in 17.2 overs
Target 125: India must chase in 17.2 overs
Target 150: India must chase in 17.3 overs
Target 175: India must chase in 17.4 overs
Target 200: India must chase in 17.5 overs

If we happen to achieve this (given that our match is first), I can provide some calculations as to what we require to happen in the Australia-Windies game. As long as Australia bat first and win the game, our NRR should be good enough as long as we hit one of the above targets.

 

[TumTum]

Seems like a pointless exercise for just a couple of matches Sohum, might as well just watch the match and see what happens.

 

[Gurjot95]

I was waiting for Sohum for his calculations . Anyways whenever the situation is like this for India to go through next round, India never win. Leave the 20 runs margin, I doubt India will even manage to win against Sri Lanka.

 

[bijesh12]

For India to qualify for the semi-finals, India will have to beat Sri Lanka by an excess of 20 runs or more, and if they are chasing, then chase down the target withing 17.3 overs, then they will have to hope Australia thrash West Indies, this will dent their NRR, and inspite this India will have to have a higher NRR ! I doubt India can beat Sri Lanka, with Jayawardene in prime form, and India have to tackle their short ball deficiency, to stand a chance.

 

[AkshayS]

Is it necessary to talk silly and ridiculous about India that they have a chance.

They never have a chance, they just mess it up in every ICC event.
If they qualify than Think It is God's gift.

 

[icyman]

Once again the Caribbean Islands return to haunt us. We play SRL yet again in a knock out situation, in a World Cup.
The last time such a thing happened was in 2007 when Sri Lanka knocked us out. I am expecting the same result.
Captain Dhoni willl yet again try and bowl forst. Let Sri Lanka amass a mammoth total of 200+ and shall lose.

 

[AkshayS]

Once again the Caribbean Islands return to haunt us. We play SRL yet again in a knock out situation, in a World Cup.
The last time such a thing happened was in 2007 when Sri Lanka knocked us out. I am expecting the same result.
Captain Dhoni willl yet again try and bowl forst. Let Sri Lanka amass a mammoth total of 200+ and shall lose.

and We shall lose by 100 runs.

 

[MuchMore]

The life after Sachin will be tough.

 

[SaiSrini]

@ sohum: When Dhoni spoke at that post match presentation, the Australia-Sri Lanka game was not yet started. And now with Pakistan beating South Africa and having a much better chance of making it to the semis (depending on the England-NZ game), Dhoni's hopes should be renewed (or someone will tell him that mathematically it is still possible).

I dont deserve to make it until we actually dont make it. If Sri Lanka can lose to us next game and if WI can lose to Australia next game, all three teams end up on the same points and so all three are as deserving to make it to the next round as us. Just because the Indian fans have so much hopes on India, it doesnt mean only we dont deserve to make it inspite having a chance to be level with SL and WI on points and NRR. Until its over, we definitely deserve everything thats possible.

SaiSrini added 1 Minutes and 40 Seconds later...

For India to qualify for the semi-finals, India will have to beat Sri Lanka by an excess of 20 runs or more, and if they are chasing, then chase down the target withing 17.3 overs, then they will have to hope Australia thrash West Indies, this will dent their NRR, and inspite this India will have to have a higher NRR ! I doubt India can beat Sri Lanka, with Jayawardene in prime form, and India have to tackle their short ball deficiency, to stand a chance.

We are playing at St Lucia, not Barbados. Gosh, the Pakistan fans here are better! They still had hopes on their team getting through the backdoor and they could make it today (depending on England-NZ game).

 

[SciD]

Gosh, the Pakistan fans here are better! They still had hopes on their team getting through the backdoor and they could make it today (depending on England-NZ game).

Its tough being Indian fan here

1. If you say we will win you will get ridiculed everytime India loose
2. If you say we will loose then you are fickle Indian supporter
3. If we win then we are worse than baby
4. If we loose then we are sore loser

 

[King Cricket]

These calculations are boggling my mind. For me, the equation is pretty simple. We have to thrash the Sri Lankans, and hope that the Australians do the same to West Indies. Have some faith in our team guys, it's doable.