If Pakistan batted first and scored, say 200, they'd only have to win by 51 runs to put India out.
I dont believe that India will lose by that big a margin (although likely). So, India needs to lose by less than 51 runs if they bowl first right?
Dhoni should bowl first tomorrow if he wins the toss. Its easier to know what to score in order to qualify. But what worries me is that India have not had a match so far in this tournament (warm up or actual match) and they directly go into this big clash without any exposure. And its going to be Durban with the wind and the pitch assisting the bowlers.
Its not looking good for India, I feel. India need to replace one of the bowlers with an all rounder (Yousuf Pathan). The batting needs to be as tight as possible. I will drop Agarkar for Yousuf Pathan (although I think Dhoni would most probably go with the same team announced for today's match).
I am taking the day off tomorrow from class (not an important one). Going to be a very nervous day tomorrow.
I think it will be wet on the outfield but not rained off. AM Showers are predicted for Durban tomorrow.
That would be better for India, I think. If its rained off tomorrow also, we go into the Super Eights without playing a game. I would prefer though that india beat Pakistan to enter the Super Eight. We can beat them. We have a good balanced team.
Pakistan must play this line-up tomorrow:
Mohammad Hafeez
Imran Nazir
Salman Butt
Younis Khan
Shahid Afridi
Shoaib Malik
Fawad Alam/Misbah ul-Haq
Kamran Akmal
Yasir Arafat/Ifthikar Anjum
Umar Gul
Mohammad Asif
Looks good.. India won't find it easy. They need a win, Pakistan on the other hand will play knowing they've qualified.
For india, this should be easier than what they faced when they met Sri Lanka in the 50 over World cup 2007.
1. Pakistan is a very very unpredictable side. They also have this pressure thing, and playing India is another big pressure.
2. Even if india lose, india and qualify. there, if india lost, they had to rely on bermuda beating bangladesh.
Afridi is the big fish tomorrow. get him cheaply and you have a good chance.