VARP Analysis: Important Information
WELL, WHAT IS IT THEN?
VARP (Value Above Replacement Player) is a metric that I devised to assess a player's performance compared to an average replacement player in the same matches. VARP is expressed as a percentage, for example, a player whose performances are 50% better than a replacement player in the same role would have a VARP of +50%. A player whose performances are 50% worse than a replacement player in the same role would be expressed as having a VARP of -50%. For the sake of clarity, I'll be presenting that with
and
arrows.
VARP is not a foolproof indication of ability. If a player played in an era of slower scoring, then a strike rate of 90 would stand out far more than it would in the modern ODI game. Similarly, if a player has played mostly in games with a lower standard of cricket being played, then their performances will likely result in a more favourable VARP score. This reflects the fact that a replacement player for (for instance) Bermuda could be expected to be much worse than a replacement player for... well pretty much anyone else.
The idea of this statistic is similar to
OPS+ and
ERA+ in baseball.
HOW IS IT CALCULATED?
The first step to calculating VARP is to calculate each player's performance rating. Regardless of a player's role, their performance rating is calculated in the same way:
runs²/(wickets*balls). For a bowler, lower performance rating is better; for a batsman, a higher performance rating is better. The performance rating isn't normalised in any way, so it's not especially valuable on its own. It is, however, useful for comparative purposes.
To calculate a player's VARP, you will also need the combined performance rating of everyone else who took on a comparable role in matches featuring the player. A player's VARP reflects how much better or worse their performance rating is than the performance rating of the aggregated "replacement player". For batsmen, this is calculated as
self/replacement; for the replacement player, this is calculated as
replacement/self.
As with most things I've created a spreadsheet to do the pain-in-the-arse mathsy bit for me with the following function:
=(((J2*J2)/(I2*K2))/(((M2-J2)*(M2-J2))/((L2-I2)*(N2-K2)))%-100
The above formula is for a batting VARP. Some of brackets are probably not strictly necessary, but better safe than sorry. The below formula is for a bowling VARP:
=1/(((J2*J2)/(I2*K2))/(((M2-J2)*(M2-J2))/((L2-I2)*(N2-K2)))%-100
Role definition is important: it's not possible to statistically define accumulators versus hitters without coding knowledge that I lack, so I'm using batting positions. Therefore, the roles are as follows:
- Batting (opener) - Opening batsmen; positions one and two.
- Batting (top order) - Positions three and four.
- Batting (middle order) - Positions five and six.
- Batting (lower order) - Positions seven and eight.
- Bowling (seamer) - For all bowlers defined as "pace" bowlers, even the slow ones.
- Bowling (spin) - For all bowlers defined as "spin" bowlers.
- Bowling (varied) - For bowlers who bowl both pace and spin; compared against all bowlers.
My plan is to go through each pick, and analyse the VARP of each player. I will also assign each pick a semi-objective star rating based on how good of a pick I think it is, but I fully respect that anyone may very well disagree with my sentiment.
Oh I'm also going to obnoxiously tag everyone who might be interested:
@ahmedleo414 @Akshay. @Bevab @blockerdave @CerealKiller @El Loco @qpeedore @VC the slogger @Yash.
One definite criticism that can be levelled at this team is that it's full of accumulators. The entire top four and Shakib are all players who score their runs between the wickets, as opposed to past the boundary. Leaves a lot of responsibility on Garry Sobers.
You started by building your team around Kohli, Tendo and Garner which is an outstanding recipe for success.
