I think rather than the number of programs, a crappy Anti-virus software doubles or triples the shut-down time. Also if you have any OEM softwares like HP security tools, ScanJet helpers or DELL accesories kind of stuff. Not to mention Itunes update service, Adobe 8.0 update, Adobe quick launcher, Windows update enabled, system restore enabled, Quicktime tray icon, Realplayer update. Believe me, get rid of these and your system start-shut down time will cut down by 20-30 seconds.