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Australia-SA game the decider as Group 1 fate unravels
As the tournament moves into it's final couple of rounds, seven teams are competing for the four semi-final spots; none decided yet. The Australia vs South Africa encounter at Durban on the 3rd of September however will be a virtual knock-out that will potentially decide, or not do so, the semi-finalists from Group 1.
It is indeed a genuine do-or-die for Australia, who will have to win this game to remain in contention. A loss would mean both New Zealand & South Africa confirmed through to the next round- and Group A's fate would have been sealed with 4 games still left to play in the group.
However things would get interesting if the Australians end on the good side of the result- sending South Africa into a do-or-die for their last game against New Zealand, and opening up the possibility for a three-way tie on 4 points between the three teams if the Proteas do manage to win their encounter with the Kiwis. This means not even New Zealand themselves will be confirmed to qualify until that NZ-SA encounter reaches its conclusion, where NRR is going to absolutely be the decider if all teams do end up on equal wins in the end.
The simplest bet for Australia though, without NRR or any other hiccups, would be to just go and win the next two games, and hope New Zealand win the last game. Australia would not be able to qualify as the top team of the group, however will be confirmed through as the second team in this case. A three-way tie however can help them finish first if their NRR is high enough. And currently, it is the lowest of the three teams- but two good wins should suffice if other results go their way.
South Africa just need to win today. If they do they're in, and the Kiwis too would hope for this to be the case as they too join the Proteas in the semis as a result, immediately, without any last-round tensions. The NZ-SA game then becomes a shoot-out for the top spot, deciding who plays Group 2's runner-up in the Semi-Final 1 at Durban.
The home side has won 3 games so far, but all being against the three lower ranked sides. The real challenge beckons against Australia, a decider match for the fate of the group- whether the Aussies stay alive and push for that spot, or do they bow out and immediately send the other two through. Australia are on their own today, with no one but themselves on their side- it should be a good contest, and one that will matter a lot for both teams going forward.
It is indeed a genuine do-or-die for Australia, who will have to win this game to remain in contention. A loss would mean both New Zealand & South Africa confirmed through to the next round- and Group A's fate would have been sealed with 4 games still left to play in the group.
However things would get interesting if the Australians end on the good side of the result- sending South Africa into a do-or-die for their last game against New Zealand, and opening up the possibility for a three-way tie on 4 points between the three teams if the Proteas do manage to win their encounter with the Kiwis. This means not even New Zealand themselves will be confirmed to qualify until that NZ-SA encounter reaches its conclusion, where NRR is going to absolutely be the decider if all teams do end up on equal wins in the end.
The simplest bet for Australia though, without NRR or any other hiccups, would be to just go and win the next two games, and hope New Zealand win the last game. Australia would not be able to qualify as the top team of the group, however will be confirmed through as the second team in this case. A three-way tie however can help them finish first if their NRR is high enough. And currently, it is the lowest of the three teams- but two good wins should suffice if other results go their way.
South Africa just need to win today. If they do they're in, and the Kiwis too would hope for this to be the case as they too join the Proteas in the semis as a result, immediately, without any last-round tensions. The NZ-SA game then becomes a shoot-out for the top spot, deciding who plays Group 2's runner-up in the Semi-Final 1 at Durban.
The home side has won 3 games so far, but all being against the three lower ranked sides. The real challenge beckons against Australia, a decider match for the fate of the group- whether the Aussies stay alive and push for that spot, or do they bow out and immediately send the other two through. Australia are on their own today, with no one but themselves on their side- it should be a good contest, and one that will matter a lot for both teams going forward.