The Spinners Debate

[ahmedleo414]

I can't wait to see what you come up with.

 

[BigHussey]

Name the best spinners to have played the game.

No argument but it has to be the G.O.A.T , the boy from Young, NSW . if you know you know.

then

Murali
Warnie

 

[Adam78]

So to avoid excessively small sample sizes, I'm ignoring any bowler with fewer than 100 Test wickets. That leaves 69 spinners for our consideration. So, starting from the worst and working our way up, let's begin:

Rank|Bowler|Wickets|VARP
69| Devendra Bishoo|117| -28.72%
68| John Bracewell|102| -22.38%
67| Mohammad Rafique|100| -21.50%
66| Nicky Boje|100| -21.12%
65| Carl Hooper|114| -20.05%
64| Intikhab Alam|125| -19.52%
63| Moeen Ali|181| -17.92%
62| Phil Tufnell|121| -16.91%
61| Ashley Giles|143| -16.88%
60| Dilruwan Perera|156| -13.76%
59| John Emburey|147| -11.89%
58| Erapalli Prasanna|189| -10.02%
57| Taijul Islam|114| -8.30%
56| Srinivas Venkataraghavan|156| -5.40%
55| Bhagwat Chandrasekhar|242| -2.61%
54| Monty Panesar|167| -1.96%
53| Keshav Maharaj|110| -1.29%
52| Paul Adams|134| -1.02%
51| Shivlal Yadav|102| -0.93%
50| Bruce Yardley|126| -0.18%
49| Mushtaq Ahmed|185| +2.75%
48| Ravi Shastri|151| +3.07%
47| Daniel Vettori|362| +6.75%
46| Ashley Mallett|132| +12.22%
45| Abdul Qadir|236| +13.58%
44| Paul Harris|103| +14.91%
43| Saeed Ajmal|178| +15.79%
42| Shakib Al Hasan|210| +15.97%
41| Danish Kaneria|261| +16.03%
40| Saqlain Mushtaq|208| +17.02%
39| Bishan Bedi|266| +19.35%
38| Vinoo Mankad|162| +20.37%
37| Wilfred Rhodes|127| +21.54%
36| Harbhajan Singh|417| +24.00%
35| Subhash Gupte|149| +24.95%
34| Ian Johnson|109| +25.62%
33| Phil Edmonds|125| +27.19%
32| Ray Illingworth|122| +27.67%
31| Richie Benaud|248| +27.97%
30| Tony Lock|174| +28.59%
29| Iqbal Qasim|171| +31.52%
28| Johnny Briggs|118| +32.25%
27| Alf Valentine|139| +34.74%
26| Nathan Lyon|390| +38.34%
25| Rangana Herath|433| +38.86%
24| Hugh Tayfield|170| +40.33%
23| Jim Laker|193| +41.25%
22| Sonny Ramadhin|158| +41.45%
21| Pragyan Ojha|113| +42.47%
20| Fred Titmus|153| +43.22%
19| Graeme Swann|255| +44.20%
18| Yasir Shah|213| +44.59%
17| Anil Kumble|619| +45.48%
16| Hugh Trumble|141| +48.36%
15| Colin Blythe|100| +49.21%
14| David Allen|122| +52.05%
13| Johnny Wardle|102| +56.27%
12| Derek Underwood|297| +57.15%
11| Stuart MacGill|208| +57.35%

So we've reached our top ten, and if you know your spinners you'll know roughly who we're missing. Already there are a few big surprises: India's famous spin quartet of Bedi, Chandrasekhar, Prasanna and Venkat fare poorly here, perhaps because of the fact that they were often being compared against one another, and perhaps because they may not have been as good people say. I'm not judging here - I'm just presenting the numbers. The person punching far higher than his reputation is Gloucestershire and England's David Allen; an average of a shade over 30 doesn't say much, but other spinners in the games he played would tend to fare far worse than he.

But anyway - onto the top 10...

10 - Ravichandran Ashwin - VARP: +57.72%
365 wickets @ 25.43 (27 5WI, best 7/59) in 71 matches

9 - Dilip Doshi - VARP: +59.58%
114 wickets @ 30.71 (6 5WI, best 6/102) in 33 matches

8 - Bobby Peel - VARP: +62.97%
101 wickets @ 16.98 (5 5WI, best 7/31) in 20 matches

7 - Clarrie Grimmett - VARP: +66.92%
216 wickets @ 24.21 (21 5WI, best 7/40) in 37 matches

6 - Shane Warne - VARP: +69.04%
708 wickets @ 25.41 (37 5WI, best 8/71) in 145 matches

5 - Bill O'Reilly - VARP: +88.94%
144 wickets @ 22.59 (11 5WI, best 7/51) in 27 matches

4 - Lance Gibbs - VARP: +97.56%
309 wickets @ 29.09 (18 5WI, best 8/38) in 79 matches

3 - Ravindra Jadeja - VARP: +100.18%
213 wickets @ 24.62 (9 5WI, best 7/48) in 49 matches

2 - Muttiah Muralitharan - VARP: +100.87%
800 wickets @ 22.72 (67 5WI, best 9/51) in 133 matches

1 - Hedley Verity - VARP: +105.02%
144 wickets @ 24.37 (5 5WI, best 8/43) in 40 matches

- - -

So that's the list, according to a player's value against replacement player. VARP directly compares a player's performance with the performance of other comparable players in the same matches; in this case, comparable players specifically means spin bowlers as opposed to all bowlers. So while Murali's raw stats may have been better than Hedley Verity's stats, the fact that he played in matches that were less hospitable to spin bowlers means that he ranks as the very best of them all by this metric.

But does VARP equal greatness? It makes no account of quantity; when remembering players as "great", people tend to associate the word with players who have performed well over a longer period of time. With that in mind, I have attached an alternate list of "great" spinners in the following table:

Rank|Bowler|"Greatness"
1| Muttiah Muralitharan| 319.74
2| Shane Warne| 208.10
3| Lance Gibbs| 198.25
4| Ravindra Jadeja| 164.92
5| Hedley Verity| 135.15
6| Anil Kumble| 129.43
7| Ravichandran Ashwin| 127.98
8| Bill O'Reilly| 114.46
9| Derek Underwood| 113.68
10| Clarrie Grimmett| 111.08

"Greatness" as a number: In this case "Greatness" is simply an additional function on top of a player's VARP: by taking a log function of their total wicket tally, it adjusts the VARP to favour players who sustained such a level of play for longest. These ten elite spin bowlers are the only ones to earn a "Greatness" score of over 100; in eleventh place is Rangana Herath with 93.81.

Spoiler: All 69 Spinners

Bowler|VARP Rank|"Greatness" Rank
Paul Adams|52|52
Mushtaq Ahmed|49|48
Saeed Ajmal|43|44
Shakib Al Hasan|42|41
Intikhab Alam|64|67
Moeen Ali|63|68
David Allen|14|20
Ravichandran Ashwin|10|7
Bishan Bedi|39|33
Richie Benaud|31|26
Devendra Bishoo|69|69
Colin Blythe|15|27
Nicky Boje|66|62
John Bracewell|68|66
Johnny Briggs|28|32
Bhagwat Chandrasekhar|55|55
Dilip Doshi|9|16
Phil Edmonds|33|36
Phil Emburey|59|59
Lance Gibbs|4|3
Ashley Giles|61|64
Clarrie Grimmett|7|10
Subhash Gupte|35|34
Paul Harris|44|45
Rangana Herath|25|11
Carl Hooper|65|65
Ray Illingworth|32|35
Taijul Islam|57|57
Ravindra Jadeja|3|4
Ian Johnson|34|40
Danish Kaneria|41|37
Anil Kumble|17|6
Jim Laker|23|17
Tony Lock|30|31
Nathan Lyon|26|13
Stuart MacGill|11|12
Keshav Maharaj|53|53
Ashley Mallett|46|47
Vinoo Mankad|38|38
Muttiah Muralitharan|2|1
Saqlain Mushtaq|40|39
Pragyan Ojha|21|28
Bill O'Reilly|5|8
Monty Panesar|54|54
Bobby Peel|8|18
Dilruwan Perera|60|60
Erapalli Prasanna|58|58
Abdul Qadir|45|43
Iqbal Qasim|29|29
Mohammad Rafique|67|63
Sonny Ramadhin|22|25
Wilfred Rhodes|37|42
Yasir Shah|18|15
Ravi Shastri|48|49
Harbhajan Singh|36|24
Graeme Swann|19|14
Hugh Tayfield|24|22
Fred Titmus|20|21
Hugh Trumble|16|19
Phil Tufnell|62|61
Derek Underwood|12|9
Alf Valentine|27|30
Srinivas Venkataraghavan|56|56
Hedley Verity|1|5
Daniel Vettori|47|46
Johnny Wardle|13|23
Shane Warne|6|2
Shivlal Yadav|51|51
Bruce Yardley|50|50

Nice work there

 

[Adam78]

I can only talk about the bowlers I have seen over the last 34 years. Murali is the best spinner I have seen. Obviously Warne was wonderful too. The main difference between the two is how Murali had the ability to run through Indian sides who played spin well while Warne was very poor (average 47.2). Murali bowled a few magnificent spells against them.

 

[Verified Enigma]

Who do you think is the 'Greatest Spinner of All Time in Tests'?

SHANE WARNE

VS

MUTTIAH MURALITHARAN

​

 

[Verified Enigma]

708 vs 800

 

[blockerdave]

Hedley Verity.

Next?

 

[Aislabie]

Hedley Verity.

Next?

Yeah we did the stats on this. Actually, might be worth merging the threads