The Spinners Debate

[CricketLifeStories]

Name the best spinners to have played the game.

 

[ahmedleo414]

in my opinion:

Shane Warne, Saqlain Mushtaq, Abdul Qadir, Murli, Anil Kumble, and Lance Gibbs.. in no particular order

 

[Aislabie]

I do believe this will be time to break out my VARP stat and do a proper study on it. It almost certainly won't be Warne - my guess is Jim Laker

That sounds like a tomorrow job to me

 

[Deleted member 193590]

It has to be Monty

In no particular order
Murali
Clarrie Grimmett
Kumble
Benaud
Lance Gibbs

 

[blockerdave]

I do believe this will be time to break out my VARP stat and do a proper study on it. It almost certainly won't be Warne - my guess is Jim Laker

That sounds like a tomorrow job to me

What's a VARP?

 

[Aislabie]

What's a VARP?

Value Against Replacement Player

I ran Murali through as an exemplar, and he came back as being 100.9% more valuable than a replacement spinner

 

[Aislabie]

That sounds like a tomorrow job to me

Small update - I've rigged up a spreadsheet to make this job really easy. It'll likely be a today job

 

[ahmedleo414]

i can't wait!

 

[Aislabie]

So to avoid excessively small sample sizes, I'm ignoring any bowler with fewer than 100 Test wickets. That leaves 69 spinners for our consideration. So, starting from the worst and working our way up, let's begin:

Rank|Bowler|Wickets|VARP
69| Devendra Bishoo|117| -28.72%
68| John Bracewell|102| -22.38%
67| Mohammad Rafique|100| -21.50%
66| Nicky Boje|100| -21.12%
65| Carl Hooper|114| -20.05%
64| Intikhab Alam|125| -19.52%
63| Moeen Ali|181| -17.92%
62| Phil Tufnell|121| -16.91%
61| Ashley Giles|143| -16.88%
60| Dilruwan Perera|156| -13.76%
59| John Emburey|147| -11.89%
58| Erapalli Prasanna|189| -10.02%
57| Taijul Islam|114| -8.30%
56| Srinivas Venkataraghavan|156| -5.40%
55| Bhagwat Chandrasekhar|242| -2.61%
54| Monty Panesar|167| -1.96%
53| Keshav Maharaj|110| -1.29%
52| Paul Adams|134| -1.02%
51| Shivlal Yadav|102| -0.93%
50| Bruce Yardley|126| -0.18%
49| Mushtaq Ahmed|185| +2.75%
48| Ravi Shastri|151| +3.07%
47| Daniel Vettori|362| +6.75%
46| Ashley Mallett|132| +12.22%
45| Abdul Qadir|236| +13.58%
44| Paul Harris|103| +14.91%
43| Saeed Ajmal|178| +15.79%
42| Shakib Al Hasan|210| +15.97%
41| Danish Kaneria|261| +16.03%
40| Saqlain Mushtaq|208| +17.02%
39| Bishan Bedi|266| +19.35%
38| Vinoo Mankad|162| +20.37%
37| Wilfred Rhodes|127| +21.54%
36| Harbhajan Singh|417| +24.00%
35| Subhash Gupte|149| +24.95%
34| Ian Johnson|109| +25.62%
33| Phil Edmonds|125| +27.19%
32| Ray Illingworth|122| +27.67%
31| Richie Benaud|248| +27.97%
30| Tony Lock|174| +28.59%
29| Iqbal Qasim|171| +31.52%
28| Johnny Briggs|118| +32.25%
27| Alf Valentine|139| +34.74%
26| Nathan Lyon|390| +38.34%
25| Rangana Herath|433| +38.86%
24| Hugh Tayfield|170| +40.33%
23| Jim Laker|193| +41.25%
22| Sonny Ramadhin|158| +41.45%
21| Pragyan Ojha|113| +42.47%
20| Fred Titmus|153| +43.22%
19| Graeme Swann|255| +44.20%
18| Yasir Shah|213| +44.59%
17| Anil Kumble|619| +45.48%
16| Hugh Trumble|141| +48.36%
15| Colin Blythe|100| +49.21%
14| David Allen|122| +52.05%
13| Johnny Wardle|102| +56.27%
12| Derek Underwood|297| +57.15%
11| Stuart MacGill|208| +57.35%

So we've reached our top ten, and if you know your spinners you'll know roughly who we're missing. Already there are a few big surprises: India's famous spin quartet of Bedi, Chandrasekhar, Prasanna and Venkat fare poorly here, perhaps because of the fact that they were often being compared against one another, and perhaps because they may not have been as good people say. I'm not judging here - I'm just presenting the numbers. The person punching far higher than his reputation is Gloucestershire and England's David Allen; an average of a shade over 30 doesn't say much, but other spinners in the games he played would tend to fare far worse than he.

But anyway - onto the top 10...

10 - Ravichandran Ashwin - VARP: +57.72%
365 wickets @ 25.43 (27 5WI, best 7/59) in 71 matches

9 - Dilip Doshi - VARP: +59.58%
114 wickets @ 30.71 (6 5WI, best 6/102) in 33 matches

8 - Bobby Peel - VARP: +62.97%
101 wickets @ 16.98 (5 5WI, best 7/31) in 20 matches

7 - Clarrie Grimmett - VARP: +66.92%
216 wickets @ 24.21 (21 5WI, best 7/40) in 37 matches

6 - Shane Warne - VARP: +69.04%
708 wickets @ 25.41 (37 5WI, best 8/71) in 145 matches

5 - Bill O'Reilly - VARP: +88.94%
144 wickets @ 22.59 (11 5WI, best 7/51) in 27 matches

4 - Lance Gibbs - VARP: +97.56%
309 wickets @ 29.09 (18 5WI, best 8/38) in 79 matches

3 - Ravindra Jadeja - VARP: +100.18%
213 wickets @ 24.62 (9 5WI, best 7/48) in 49 matches

2 - Muttiah Muralitharan - VARP: +100.87%
800 wickets @ 22.72 (67 5WI, best 9/51) in 133 matches

1 - Hedley Verity - VARP: +105.02%
144 wickets @ 24.37 (5 5WI, best 8/43) in 40 matches

- - -

So that's the list, according to a player's value against replacement player. VARP directly compares a player's performance with the performance of other comparable players in the same matches; in this case, comparable players specifically means spin bowlers as opposed to all bowlers. So while Murali's raw stats may have been better than Hedley Verity's stats, the fact that he played in matches that were less hospitable to spin bowlers means that he ranks as the very best of them all by this metric.

But does VARP equal greatness? It makes no account of quantity; when remembering players as "great", people tend to associate the word with players who have performed well over a longer period of time. With that in mind, I have attached an alternate list of "great" spinners in the following table:

Rank|Bowler|"Greatness"
1| Muttiah Muralitharan| 319.74
2| Shane Warne| 208.10
3| Lance Gibbs| 198.25
4| Ravindra Jadeja| 164.92
5| Hedley Verity| 135.15
6| Anil Kumble| 129.43
7| Ravichandran Ashwin| 127.98
8| Bill O'Reilly| 114.46
9| Derek Underwood| 113.68
10| Clarrie Grimmett| 111.08

"Greatness" as a number: In this case "Greatness" is simply an additional function on top of a player's VARP: by taking a log function of their total wicket tally, it adjusts the VARP to favour players who sustained such a level of play for longest. These ten elite spin bowlers are the only ones to earn a "Greatness" score of over 100; in eleventh place is Rangana Herath with 93.81.

Spoiler: All 69 Spinners

Bowler|VARP Rank|"Greatness" Rank
Paul Adams|52|52
Mushtaq Ahmed|49|48
Saeed Ajmal|43|44
Shakib Al Hasan|42|41
Intikhab Alam|64|67
Moeen Ali|63|68
David Allen|14|20
Ravichandran Ashwin|10|7
Bishan Bedi|39|33
Richie Benaud|31|26
Devendra Bishoo|69|69
Colin Blythe|15|27
Nicky Boje|66|62
John Bracewell|68|66
Johnny Briggs|28|32
Bhagwat Chandrasekhar|55|55
Dilip Doshi|9|16
Phil Edmonds|33|36
Phil Emburey|59|59
Lance Gibbs|4|3
Ashley Giles|61|64
Clarrie Grimmett|7|10
Subhash Gupte|35|34
Paul Harris|44|45
Rangana Herath|25|11
Carl Hooper|65|65
Ray Illingworth|32|35
Taijul Islam|57|57
Ravindra Jadeja|3|4
Ian Johnson|34|40
Danish Kaneria|41|37
Anil Kumble|17|6
Jim Laker|23|17
Tony Lock|30|31
Nathan Lyon|26|13
Stuart MacGill|11|12
Keshav Maharaj|53|53
Ashley Mallett|46|47
Vinoo Mankad|38|38
Muttiah Muralitharan|2|1
Saqlain Mushtaq|40|39
Pragyan Ojha|21|28
Bill O'Reilly|5|8
Monty Panesar|54|54
Bobby Peel|8|18
Dilruwan Perera|60|60
Erapalli Prasanna|58|58
Abdul Qadir|45|43
Iqbal Qasim|29|29
Mohammad Rafique|67|63
Sonny Ramadhin|22|25
Wilfred Rhodes|37|42
Yasir Shah|18|15
Ravi Shastri|48|49
Harbhajan Singh|36|24
Graeme Swann|19|14
Hugh Tayfield|24|22
Fred Titmus|20|21
Hugh Trumble|16|19
Phil Tufnell|62|61
Derek Underwood|12|9
Alf Valentine|27|30
Srinivas Venkataraghavan|56|56
Hedley Verity|1|5
Daniel Vettori|47|46
Johnny Wardle|13|23
Shane Warne|6|2
Shivlal Yadav|51|51
Bruce Yardley|50|50

 

[ahmedleo414]

That was a great read and very fascinating

 

[Aislabie]

That was a great read and very fascinating

Cheers! My favourite kind of stats investigations are the ones where I learn stuff as I'm putting them together.

In this case, I learned just how much I'd been underrating both Hedley Verity and Lance Gibbs; I'd always kind of looked at Gibbs' stats and assumed that his legacy was tinged with more than a hint of nostalgia but upon closer inspection he achieved what he did in spite of the conditions in which he played.

It was also very interesting to see about Ashwin and Jadeja; I've personally always rated Jadeja as the marginally better Test bowler, but had a hard time convincing people of it. This shows that indeed he is, by a greater degree than I expected. It also rather discredits the idea that Ashwin and Jadeja are dry-track bullies: if that were the case, then other spinners in games they play would do similarly well, but they stand head and shoulders above because they're both generational talents.

And it's always nice to find a few players whose excellence wasn't immediately obvious: David Allen, Dilip Doshi, Paul Harris and Pragyan Ojha are the players I'm thinking of here. All of them averaged over 30 with the ball, a bracket of player we tend not to pay attention to, but all have been shown to be excellent cricketers in their own right by looking at their performances up against their peers in equal situations.

 

[CricketLifeStories]

A great character who talks very openly. Check out this piece with former Australian leg-spinner, Stuart MacGill.

 

[El Loco]

Cheers! My favourite kind of stats investigations are the ones where I learn stuff as I'm putting them together.

In this case, I learned just how much I'd been underrating both Hedley Verity and Lance Gibbs; I'd always kind of looked at Gibbs' stats and assumed that his legacy was tinged with more than a hint of nostalgia but upon closer inspection he achieved what he did in spite of the conditions in which he played.

It was also very interesting to see about Ashwin and Jadeja; I've personally always rated Jadeja as the marginally better Test bowler, but had a hard time convincing people of it. This shows that indeed he is, by a greater degree than I expected. It also rather discredits the idea that Ashwin and Jadeja are dry-track bullies: if that were the case, then other spinners in games they play would do similarly well, but they stand head and shoulders above because they're both generational talents.

And it's always nice to find a few players whose excellence wasn't immediately obvious: David Allen, Dilip Doshi, Paul Harris and Pragyan Ojha are the players I'm thinking of here. All of them averaged over 30 with the ball, a bracket of player we tend not to pay attention to, but all have been shown to be excellent cricketers in their own right by looking at their performances up against their peers in equal situations.

I agree I was very surprised to see a lot of these players come in ahead of Jim Laker who you predicted be there or there abouts at the top to begin with, turns out he doesn't even break in to the top 20!

 

[El Loco]

Also quite shocked that Abdul Qadir isn't further up the list.

 

[Aislabie]

I agree I was very surprised to see a lot of these players come in ahead of Jim Laker who you predicted be there or there abouts at the top to begin with, turns out he doesn't even break in to the top 20!

Sticky wickets I guess, but it's still very surprising.

I've been working my way through some seamers and batsmen - nothing complete because I've been flitting between tasks, but it looks as though the best seamer, and best bowler by a shade, is going to be Glenn McGrath at about +106%. I've only done two batsmen, but I can confidently say that Bradman is the king of them all with a VARP of +315% compared to batsmen between #3 and #5. Tendulkar's came in at around +36% (his Greatness comes in at 106ish, but the batting greatness scaling is subject to change), which is good but not quite Carling.

I've not quite decided how to adjudicate on all-rounders or wicket-keepers; there aren't many good stats on wicket-keeping.

If possible though I want to split it into roles, something like:

• Opening batsmen (1-2)
• Top-order batsmen (3-4)
• Middle-order batsmen (5-7)
• Seam bowlers
• Spin bowlers

If I can get it completely done then there's probably scope for a book of best and greatest players in Test cricket. If I could code I could also make a site for the various cricket metrics (BSR and RSR, VARP and "Greatness" so far) I've come up with, especially for T20 cricket - but I can't code.