wasteyouryouth
Verified
This is like watching England circa 2014.
South Africa tour of England 2022 (incl. 2 T20Is vs Ireland)
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wasteyouryouth
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#ButtlerOut
Ed Smith
Gaffer
Didn't die. But that was putrid
Bevab
Staff Member
When Stokes got out you would have still had England down as clear favourites in the Bayliss era. The fact that they lost from there by a significant margin is a worrying sign.
I know there is absolutely no way Mo gets dropped by the ECB after Morgan and Stokes‘ retirement given that the WC will be in India but he surely has to be temporarily taken out of the firing line? His career batting average has plummeted to 25 and his bowling average is now at 50. He is also not being anywhere near as aggressive as before. His bowling is also only as good as a sixth bowler’s now. Livo’s picked up only two lesser wickets whilst bowling 80 lesser overs in the last three years compared to him. Now I kmow that Mo’s role with the ball is to be an economical holding spinner only but that worked when Rashid was picking up wickets for fun. The current version of Rashid has been poor himself, a far cry from the best spinners in world cricket at present and it makes no sense to continue with Mo when this partnership isn’t working like before.
Dropping Mo should also allow for the inclusion of an extra batter which I think they should go with. Livingstone looks more like a Maxi type of player and he should be given the freedom to play that role. Also feel like they should get him working more on bowling those flithy leggies. Now that Root is no longer the Test captain and still doesn’t play T20Is, feel like he should also be put on some bowling practice to prep him for serving the Mo role. He is IMO a very underrated weapon with the ball. I’m not quite sure who the new batter should be in place of Mo but ideally you would want someone who could also roll his arm if needed. This is where someone like Stokes could have been so useful as you could still count on him for 5 overs whilst getting the other five from Livo and Root. With Brook and Livo yet to establish themselves I feel like the extra batter will serve a world of good for England at the moment. Once the likes of Woakes and Jofra are back and the newcomers have played their way into the XI they can go back to having a bowling all-rounder in at seven with the added benefit of bat-deep.
Unless there is an all-rounder with the potential of a Cam Green waiting in the reserves making my entire argument null and void. In that case, back him all the way like you did with Stokes.
I know there is absolutely no way Mo gets dropped by the ECB after Morgan and Stokes‘ retirement given that the WC will be in India but he surely has to be temporarily taken out of the firing line? His career batting average has plummeted to 25 and his bowling average is now at 50. He is also not being anywhere near as aggressive as before. His bowling is also only as good as a sixth bowler’s now. Livo’s picked up only two lesser wickets whilst bowling 80 lesser overs in the last three years compared to him. Now I kmow that Mo’s role with the ball is to be an economical holding spinner only but that worked when Rashid was picking up wickets for fun. The current version of Rashid has been poor himself, a far cry from the best spinners in world cricket at present and it makes no sense to continue with Mo when this partnership isn’t working like before.
Dropping Mo should also allow for the inclusion of an extra batter which I think they should go with. Livingstone looks more like a Maxi type of player and he should be given the freedom to play that role. Also feel like they should get him working more on bowling those flithy leggies. Now that Root is no longer the Test captain and still doesn’t play T20Is, feel like he should also be put on some bowling practice to prep him for serving the Mo role. He is IMO a very underrated weapon with the ball. I’m not quite sure who the new batter should be in place of Mo but ideally you would want someone who could also roll his arm if needed. This is where someone like Stokes could have been so useful as you could still count on him for 5 overs whilst getting the other five from Livo and Root. With Brook and Livo yet to establish themselves I feel like the extra batter will serve a world of good for England at the moment. Once the likes of Woakes and Jofra are back and the newcomers have played their way into the XI they can go back to having a bowling all-rounder in at seven with the added benefit of bat-deep.
Unless there is an all-rounder with the potential of a Cam Green waiting in the reserves making my entire argument null and void. In that case, back him all the way like you did with Stokes.
wasteyouryouth
Verified
There's plenty of batters who could be tried in the middle order. Malan, Salt, Brook, Duckett, Hain, Vince and Sam Billings who looked good before he was dropped. The problem there's not enough time to give someone a run in the team and if it doesn't work out bring someone else in before the WC.
I'd like to see Salt brought in, he's shown some good form when he's had chances (opening or in the lower middle order in T20). With Livingstone, Mo, Buttler there someone like Malan might be a decent option at 4.
It'll be interesting to see what they do in the next match. The closest replacement for Stokes, I think they would try, is Sam Curran at 7. I think he's the long term hope to replace Stokes. Woakes was of course at 7 in the World Cup and that didn't work out too badly. Five bowlers + Stokes and Root. I think ten overs from Livingstone and Moeen is enough to justify replacing Stokes with a out and out batter.
Bevab
Staff Member
The more I think about it, the more I feel like Rassie’s century is one of the best modern knocks in ODI history.
I’m surprised that you would want Mo in the side after all these years of middling performances. Or is it because the ECB is very unlikely to drop him?
I feel like he should have been a Maxi lite in terms of how he should have been factored into this XI. Instead he has been seen as a bowling all-rounder for the most part in all three formats which I suppose has led to his current predicament.
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I’m surprised that you would want Mo in the side after all these years of middling performances. Or is it because the ECB is very unlikely to drop him?
I feel like he should have been a Maxi lite in terms of how he should have been factored into this XI. Instead he has been seen as a bowling all-rounder for the most part in all three formats which I suppose has led to his current predicament.
wasteyouryouth
Verified
Didn't plan on such a comprehensive analysis of Moeen but it's too effin hot to sleep..
TLDR - When England have been so good, Mo's numbers, in the context of the team, are acceptable. With Stokes retiring his position in the side, going into a subcontinent World Cup, could be even more important.-
The thing with Mo is he's been a very selfless cricketer. He was basically turned into a bowling all rounder cause England couldn't find a replacement for Graeme Swann. Who knows if he could've made it as a batter who bowled a bit but he never really had the chance. Most of his ODI career has been in Eoin Morgan's ultra aggressive England team.
In ODIs he's batted at seven 64 times (out of 94 innings total). England's top six (those who played in the WC Final at least) are not just the best top six England has had but, arguably, the best six ODI batters we've ever had. KP probably comes closest from other eras. So there's been a lot of consistency and quality ahead of him.
At seven he averages 22.47, which is not great compared with some others, but has a strike rate of 102 which is much better than most.
The batting record is down to two things (my hypothesis anyway):
If the top order goes well he is not going to have long to bat. Additionally, Morgan was always been adamant that batting out the overs is a secondary consideration. It's all about trying to score as much as possible, quickly. Which for a number seven will lead to a lower average. (I'd say the same about Morgan himself, even though he averaged 49.12 at 98 Strike Rate batting at 4 since 2016).
The other big factor; since 2016, England's tail has included (15 innings):
Woakes (avge 28.47 @ 103.44 SR)
Willey ([email protected])
Plunkett (17.50 @ 114.13)
Rashid (14.34 @ 90.16)
Tom Curran (37.87 @ 94.39)
Mark Wood and Jofra Archer who just swing the bat.
Also, England's went with five bowlers in the World Cup, with Moeen left out in favour of Woakes at 7 (and occasionally at 3). Assuming England would want two spinners in India I'd expect he's a big part of the plans. They've not really tried Parkinson and no other spinners seem to be getting a look in.
Mo is not coming in to play for his average, get a not out, bat out the overs or shepherding the tail because. He's not the last decent batter, which would be the role of a lot of other number sevens.
(Same time frame, for other countries:
Australia: Hazelwood [email protected], Cummins [email protected], Starc [email protected], Zampa [email protected]
India: Bhuvi [email protected], Kuldeep [email protected], Bumrah [email protected], Shami 6.25 @77.3)
So, if you want a guy who can score quickly, bowl 10 overs of fairly economical spin (half the time on flat English wickets) there's not really any other options in England. Liam Dawson is probably unlucky to have not had as many chances, but that's really down to Moeen doing what has been asked of him.
Selection for the second ODI could be quite telling of the plans. Do Buttler, Livingstone and Moeen move up - with, say Salt or Sam Curran at 7? Or do they bring in Salt at 5 or 6? I reckon they might go with Livingstone, Moeen and Root being able to bowl at least 10 overs between them and Salt at 6.
Bevab
Staff Member
Didn't plan on such a comprehensive analysis of Moeen but it's too effin hot to sleep..
-
The thing with Mo is he's been a very selfless cricketer. He was basically turned into a bowling all rounder cause England couldn't find a replacement for Graeme Swann. Who knows if he could've made it as a batter who bowled a bit but he never really had the chance. Most of his ODI career has been in Eoin Morgan's ultra aggressive England team.
In ODIs he's batted at seven 64 times (out of 94 innings total). England's top six (those who played in the WC Final at least) are not just the best top six England has had but, arguably, the best six ODI batters we've ever had. KP probably comes closest from other eras. So there's been a lot of consistency and quality ahead of him.
At seven he averages 22.47, which is not great compared with some others, but has a strike rate of 102 which is much better than most.
The batting record is down to two things (my hypothesis anyway):
If the top order goes well he is not going to have long to bat. Additionally, Morgan was always been adamant that batting out the overs is a secondary consideration. It's all about trying to score as much as possible, quickly. Which for a number seven will lead to a lower average. (I'd say the same about Morgan himself, even though he averaged 49.12 at 98 Strike Rate batting at 4 since 2016).
The other big factor; since 2016, England's tail has included (15 innings):
Woakes (avge 28.47 @ 103.44 SR)
Willey ([email protected])
Plunkett (17.50 @ 114.13)
Rashid (14.34 @ 90.16)
Tom Curran (37.87 @ 94.39)
Mark Wood and Jofra Archer who just swing the bat.
Also, England's went with five bowlers in the World Cup, with Moeen left out in favour of Woakes at 7 (and occasionally at 3). Assuming England would want two spinners in India I'd expect he's a big part of the plans. They've not really tried Parkinson and no other spinners seem to be getting a look in.
Mo is not coming in to play for his average, get a not out, bat out the overs or shepherding the tail because. He's not the last decent batter, which would be the role of a lot of other number sevens.
(Same time frame, for other countries:
Australia: Hazelwood [email protected], Cummins [email protected], Starc [email protected], Zampa [email protected]
India: Bhuvi [email protected], Kuldeep [email protected], Bumrah [email protected], Shami 6.25 @77.3)
So, if you want a guy who can score quickly, bowl 10 overs of fairly economical spin (half the time on flat English wickets) there's not really any other options in England. Liam Dawson is probably unlucky to have not had as many chances, but that's really down to Moeen doing what has been asked of him.
Selection for the second ODI could be quite telling of the plans. Do Buttler, Livingstone and Moeen move up - with, say Salt or Sam Curran at 7? Or do they bring in Salt at 5 or 6? I reckon they might go with Livingstone, Moeen and Root being able to bowl at least 10 overs between them and Salt at 6.
The thing is that Mo has been striking at 76 (with an average of 25) in this current WC cycle playing in that middle order role. He might have worked once but he no longer seems effective for the job you’re suggesting him for. 76 isn’t outright terrible as Holder, Neesham and Phehlukwayo both strike at similar rates with worse averages for instance although I suspect Neesham’s numbers will be fine once he is backed consistently. Nabi, Simi Singh and Mahmudullah average more but are again in a similar range for slogging. But even accounting for the pitches in ODI cricket not being as flat as they were in the Bayliss era and England’s new policy of not pushing the throttle constantly Mo’s numbers simply aren’t what you want from a bloke batting at seven in the English lineup. For instance both Shanaka and Carey average close to 30 and strike at ten more. I’d say that the best in the world at this current role is Maxi himself who strikes at 130. I do think the role of a number seven has slightly shifted from ’have your best slogging all-rounder there’ to ‘have someone who can bowl well but can bat adequately if and when required’. But here are some blokes who bat at 6-8 with a healthier strike-rate over the current cycle:
Hardik Pandya @115 George Dockrell @115 Mitchell Santner @104 (although the sample size is insignificant) Dhananjaya de Silva @108 Sikandar Raza @102 Colin de Grandhomme @100 (smaller sample size) Ravi Jadeja @95 Shadab Khan @93 Afif Hossain @90 David Wiese @89 Chamika Karunaratne @87If you wanted to check for English cricketers, you’re in luck too. Livo strikes at 124, Willey at 100, Billings at 93 and Sam Curran at 92. Mo should be striving for these numbers. The English management should be looking at these numbers from blokes in other countries rather than be content with him producing an output similar to Holder and Phehlukwayo, players whose very existence in the playing XI is due to a lack of alternative quality options and other important factors. There was a reason he was dropped from the WC XI mid-tournament and replaced with essentially a bowler as they figured said bowlers offered the same output if not marginally better than him with the bat.
With the ball I personally feel Mo has done a decent if not good job even if the average armchair expert would take a glance at his numbers in this cycle and call them below average. He is no Shakib or Nabi with a sub-4 rpo but his economy of 5.25 is better than both Jadeja, Allen, Maxi and Shadab although the latter are all more penetrative. There are still quite a host of bowlers with better economy rates though such as:
Simi Singh @4.00 Andy McBrine @4.46 Akeal Hosein @4.53 Roston Chase @4.60 Keshav Maharaj @4.63 Wanindu Hasaranga @4.70 Mitchell Santner @4.71 Dhananjaya de Silva @4.74 Aiden Markram @4.86 Ashton Agar @4.91All of these bowlers have a better strike-rate with the ball too. As I’ve said Mo has done a decent job with the ball indeed but my argument is that with Rashid not looking as world-class as he once did, is it worth having Mo in the side purely as a holding spinner from one end? I don’t even mean holding spinner in the conventional terms too like Agar or Jadeja as he has pretty much one of the worst strike-rates in ODI cricket with only the likes of Labuschagne, Krunal, Mossadek and Raza faring off worse than him. English competitors here are much rarer with Livo and Root being more expensive but the key thing here is that they’ve both combined managed to take two more wickets than Mo has done in less than half of the overs.
That is astounding and I feel like England‘s biggest issue from recent games is letting the innings slip by without wickets being taken in the middle over to break partnerships rather than control or economy. Both India and South Africa have not put up scores/chased in a way that are out of the ordinary. Instead it has just been them taking good advantage of partnerships to get to victories. The dream for England would be to have a Maxi like player which I feel they do in Livo. However I don’t think it is too far fetched to find out a Dhananjaya de Silva-lite from domestic cricket who may be unglamorous on paper but performs the role even better than Mo arguably does at the moment. The option that is more realistic and I would say ideal given the confused nature of the batting XI at the moment would be to have an extra batter (preferably someone who can roll their arm over in an emergency) with Root and Livo sharing fifth bowler duties whilst England get Curran and Willey training to be the number seven batter long-term. Once Woakes returns that should give them serious batting depth once again.
wasteyouryouth
Verified
I've certainly been one of the people in the past saying Mo needs dropping and still don't know if he'd be my first XI. I've wanted to see Liam Dawson get chances. He's been in squads and not played, particularly during covid - think there was a series v Ireland like that.The thing is that Mo has been striking at 76 (with an average of 25) in this current WC cycle playing in that middle order role. He might have worked once but he no longer seems effective for the job you’re suggesting him for. 76 isn’t outright terrible as Holder, Neesham and Phehlukwayo both strike at similar rates with worse averages for instance although I suspect Neesham’s numbers will be fine once he is backed consistently. Nabi, Simi Singh and Mahmudullah average more but are again in a similar range for slogging. But even accounting for the pitches in ODI cricket not being as flat as they were in the Bayliss era and England’s new policy of not pushing the throttle constantly Mo’s numbers simply aren’t what you want from a bloke batting at seven in the English lineup. For instance both Shanaka and Carey average close to 30 and strike at ten more. I’d say that the best in the world at this current role is Maxi himself who strikes at 130. I do think the role of a number seven has slightly shifted from ’have your best slogging all-rounder there’ to ‘have someone who can bowl well but can bat adequately if and when required’. But here are some blokes who bat at 6-8 with a healthier strike-rate over the current cycle:
If you wanted to check for English cricketers, you’re in luck too. Livo strikes at 124, Willey at 100, Billings at 93 and Sam Curran at 92. Mo should be striving for these numbers. The English management should be looking at these numbers from blokes in other countries rather than be content with him producing an output similar to Holder and Phehlukwayo, players whose very existence in the playing XI is due to a lack of alternative quality options and other important factors. There was a reason he was dropped from the WC XI mid-tournament and replaced with essentially a bowler as they figured said bowlers offered the same output if not marginally better than him with the bat.
With the ball I personally feel Mo has done a decent if not good job even if the average armchair expert would take a glance at his numbers in this cycle and call them below average. He is no Shakib or Nabi with a sub-4 rpo but his economy of 5.25 is better than both Jadeja, Allen, Maxi and Shadab although the latter are all more penetrative. There are still quite a host of bowlers with better economy rates though such as:
All of these bowlers have a better strike-rate with the ball too. As I’ve said Mo has done a decent job with the ball indeed but my argument is that with Rashid not looking as world-class as he once did, is it worth having Mo in the side purely as a holding spinner from one end? I don’t even mean holding spinner in the conventional terms too like Agar or Jadeja as he has pretty much one of the worst strike-rates in ODI cricket with only the likes of Labuschagne, Krunal, Mossadek and Raza faring off worse than him. English competitors here are much rarer with Livo and Root being more expensive but the key thing here is that they’ve both combined managed to take two more wickets than Mo has done in less than half of the overs.
That is astounding and I feel like England‘s biggest issue from recent games is letting the innings slip by without wickets being taken in the middle over to break partnerships rather than control or economy. Both India and South Africa have not put up scores/chased in a way that are out of the ordinary. Instead it has just been them taking good advantage of partnerships to get to victories. The dream for England would be to have a Maxi like player which I feel they do in Livo. However I don’t think it is too far fetched to find out a Dhananjaya de Silva-lite from domestic cricket who may be unglamorous on paper but performs the role even better than Mo arguably does at the moment. The option that is more realistic and I would say ideal given the confused nature of the batting XI at the moment would be to have an extra batter (preferably someone who can roll their arm over in an emergency) with Root and Livo sharing fifth bowler duties whilst England get Curran and Willey training to be the number seven batter long-term. Once Woakes returns that should give them serious batting depth once again.
The team just doesn't look right at the moment. All the same people talking up Buttler's captaincy for years are the same people talking up Zak Crawley as the second coming of Don Bradman. The batting looks less assured an as though it'll find a way. That being said, it was Moeen and Willey who's innings helped England get to a winning total at Lord's. He offers that stability and experience. During a transition when you lose two huge players in the space of a month I think it's obvious they want and need someone like Moeen at the moment.
I think if I'm looking at England's top six I'd probably pick the least exciting option in Dawid Malan - at least as a short term fix. Him at 4, other option Zak Crawley and 'rest' him from the test team.
wasteyouryouth
Verified
Wiaan Mulder has got 235* last innings and today 156 for Leicestershire. Thankfully he doesn't seem to be in the South Africa test squad.
Bevab
Staff Member
Interestingly Mo is in a Bavuma like situation then where he managed to retain his test spot despite poor performances because everyone else retired and there was no one else with experience. Hope it turns out as well as it did for South Africa in this scenario for England. Still feel like he at least needs to be ‘rested’ like Kohli.
Malan is a solid choice indeed, can turn his arm over if needed too. Now that Hain has shown he can hit big if required, he’s also a worthy option. Not too sold on Salt, feel like he should be the backup opener or replace Roy rather than play in random roles.
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Funnily Mulder’s stats were middling before that and he wouldn’t have made them if he had been in the frame of things for South Africa. He hasn’t yet brought his talent to the international stage but I’m confused as to why he’s not receiving the type of backing that Green does for Australia. His talent is obvious and he’s a much better solution to number 7 than Marco Jansen ever will be.
wasteyouryouth
Verified
After the batting I was preparing my #ButtlerOut post but looks like I might not need it.
Bevab
Staff Member
I don’t think the batting was that bad though. It did not come off today but the approach was right IMO and they’ll win more than lose with it. Especially if they bring in a dynamic accumulator like Morgan/Stokes was instead of another hitter.
Aislabie
Test Cricket is Best Cricket
There's a whole lot of stuff that's quite tricky at the moment when it comes to picking this England side.
Some of the team's senior players have either retired or ceased to perform meaningfully, which means roles are going unfulfilled. And with a fresh era of captaincy, it's worth going back to the drawing board entirely, but I feel as if England are trying to stumble over the line with the 2023 World Cup and then rebuild. And as a result of that there are bodges happening like moving Joe Root down to four today which is very galaxy-brained. Then when you want to find replacements, you get the problem that no players outside the England team have played a representative List A match since 2019, so you're just guessing whether they can do each role.
There are positives of course: David Willey has shown himself to be an excellent firefighter with the bat and also a great top-and-tail bowler (not necessarily a role I've previously defined, but he fills it), and Reece Topley is a superb wicket-taking seamer. So there are big positives even if the team doesn't fit together yet. I'll try and put them together into a team that might be able to fall over the line for the 2023 World Cup before making bigger changes:
| Player | Batting Role | Fielding Role | Notes | |
| 1 | Jason Roy | Top-order hitter | - | Has been playing poorly for some time; probably has 2023 as his finish line. |
| 2 | Jonny Bairstow | Top-order hitter | - | Arguably England's best-ever ODI batter; keeps this role as long as he wants. |
| 3 | Joe Root | Dynamic accumulator | - | The best in the world at this role which is all about scoring fast while avoiding risk. |
| 4 | Jos Buttler | Middle-overs hitter | Wicket-keeper | I'd like to see him in an entirely new role where he flogs the bowling through the middle overs. |
| 5 | Phil Salt | Late-overs hitter | - | An exceedingly gifted boundary hitter, and should take on Jason Roy's role in due course. |
| 6 | Liam Livingstone | Late-overs hitter | Stock spinner | A player with such a high ceiling; definitely needs a long rope. |
| 7 | Lewis Gregory | Late-overs hitter | New ball seamer | Gregory was terrific against Pakistan last year, and can definitely do these roles. |
| 8 | David Willey | Firefighter | Top-and-tail bowler | Willey is the perfect batter when the team needs a crucial 30 runs or so. And excellent with the ball. |
| 9 | Brydon Carse | - | Stock seamer | Not sure about this pick; need someone to hit the deck in the middle overs. Either Overton could work. |
| 10 | Adil Rashid | - | Wicket-taking spinner | The 2023 World Cup is his finish line as a player; Rehan Ahmed is being readied as his replacement. |
| 11 | Reece Topley | - | Wicket-taking seamer | Keep this man fit at all costs. He's an elite bowler, and the only thing holding him back is his body. |
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