Without following this closely, the vibe that I'm getting from just skimming the headlines is that Biden seems to be on course to trump Trump (pun intended
)
However, have also come across articles which state that Trump has a loophole that he can use to make sure he stays in power (don't exactly remember what it was)
So which one seems more likely?
Biden will more than likely win the popular vote. But if Trump wins the right states he can win the electoral college which he did in 2016. If it's close, either way, things could get a lot worse before they get better.
America has a lengthy transition of power. Election in November, new President not in place until January. Not sure how this works elsewhere, in UK, it's essentially an overnight change. With the state the country is in, wildly divided, it feels as though anything could happen during that time. Trump ha been sowing the seeds of doubt about the election (he claimed there were 3 million illegal voters when he won); mail-in voting being the big point of contention. He's not above breaking the norms or law so he might just flat out deny the result (if it went against him) and refuse to leave.
The only likely thing to prevent this would be if Biden absolutely trounces him. Even then there will be people who flatly refuse to accept the result; Trump being one of them but if it's a complete thrashing more people might be convinced. When you look at Trump's base (35-40%) over the last few years it could be more than a third of the country who refuse to accept the result using whatever nonsense narrative to justify it. How they choose to act at this point could be the tipping point into things becoming even worse than they are now.
If some states are narrow it could end up in the supreme court as it did when Bush 'beat' Gore in 2000. That halted a recount in Florida, similar things could happen this year (particularly if increased mail-in voting makes vote counting a longer process). This is just one more reason why the seat vacated the death of RBG could be so crucial.