End Game Explosive Mafia - Endgame Mafia (zwarrior, asprin & RUDOLPH)

[swacker]

Actually pleaded for someone not to kill him. Must be because off his unlucky Night 1 being murdered.

I knew this would come up, I posted that even before I got the role..

In, please don't kill me.

 

[surendar]

what a set up! So there are 2 bombs as anti-town, 1 K9 unit and 1 bomb as town aligned. Interesting.

Yes Swacker, don't get killed in a night-less game.

 

[Fake Passport]

I normally don't like to comment on the setup, its kinda on the scummy end of the spectrum for me. So, possibly incriminating myself...

Stats:
Currently 66% / 33% Town Favor.
Lynch (Flips town) 62.5% / 37.5%
Lynch (Flips scum) 75% / 25% (would mafia let this happen?)

Currently 66% / 33% Town Favor.
1 Mafia Bombs Town (5T 2M) 71% / 29%

What am I missing? Why would we lynch?
I suppose it depends how valuable you consider the K9 and town bomb, but I suggest, why bother lynching? Lets just keep talking and talking and No Lynching and grind the mafia bombs down until they do some work. If they take out a townie our odds kinda increase dramatically. I propose we let the mafia make the first move, that makes:

Day 1 - 6T / 3M - Assume mafia bombs town.
Day 2 - 5T / 2M - Assume mafia bombs town.
Day 3 - 4T / 1M - Mafia have no kill power

Worst case scenario, the 2 bombs kill K9 and Town bomb. That leave a 4/1 Vanilla game, thats still pretty good odds with a few days of talking.
Best case scenario, the 2 bombs kill vanilla townies, That leaves a 4/1 game with k9 and bomb...[DOUBLEPOST=1497362526][/DOUBLEPOST]I am predicating that post on the Godfather not having a nightkill though? or is a godfather kill 'normal' and not 'special'?

 

[CerealKiller]

I normally don't like to comment on the setup, its kinda on the scummy end of the spectrum for me. So, possibly incriminating myself...

Stats:
Currently 66% / 33% Town Favor.
Lynch (Flips town) 62.5% / 37.5%
Lynch (Flips scum) 75% / 25% (would mafia let this happen?)

Currently 66% / 33% Town Favor.
1 Mafia Bombs Town (5T 2M) 71% / 29%

What am I missing? Why would we lynch?
I suppose it depends how valuable you consider the K9 and town bomb, but I suggest, why bother lynching? Lets just keep talking and talking and No Lynching and grind the mafia bombs down until they do some work. If they take out a townie our odds kinda increase dramatically. I propose we let the mafia make the first move, that makes:

Day 1 - 6T / 3M - Assume mafia bombs town.
Day 2 - 5T / 2M - Assume mafia bombs town.
Day 3 - 4T / 1M - Mafia have no kill power

Worst case scenario, the 2 bombs kill K9 and Town bomb. That leave a 4/1 Vanilla game, thats still pretty good odds with a few days of talking.
Best case scenario, the 2 bombs kill vanilla townies, That leaves a 4/1 game with k9 and bomb...[DOUBLEPOST=1497362526][/DOUBLEPOST]I am predicating that post on the Godfather not having a nightkill though? or is a godfather kill 'normal' and not 'special'?

I think Simon probably has thought of this and has included someone else than bombs in the Mafia. Godfather probably.

 

[swacker]

Lets just keep talking and talking and No Lynching and grind the mafia bombs down until they do some work.

Seems like a good idea.[DOUBLEPOST=1497363221][/DOUBLEPOST]

Worst case scenario, the 2 bombs kill K9 and Town bomb. That leave a 4/1 Vanilla game, thats still pretty good odds with a few days of talking.

yea, was about to ask the situation where we end up losing both K9 and town bomb, can you explain how good the odds are?

 

[Fake Passport]

Seems like a good idea.[DOUBLEPOST=1497363221][/DOUBLEPOST]

yea, was about to ask the situation where we end up losing both K9 and town bomb, can you explain how good the odds are?

Then effectively its a standard mafia game with 25% Mafia with no kill ability. That would mean even a mislynch takes it to 3/1, then 2/1, so a couple of opportunities to get it right...

 

[Fake Passport]

This will also be a nightless setup

Answers the nightkill question. I *think* the thing here is to No Lynch?

 

[CerealKiller]

Answers the nightkill question. I *think* the thing here is to No Lynch?

Then are there three Mafia bombs?

 

[Fake Passport]

Then are there three Mafia bombs?

There isn't any indication that there is anything other than the writeup (which is 2 Mafia bombs and 1 Town Bomb).
Simon also said in post #24

I'm going to make this an open setup

FOS CerealKiller?

 

[swacker]

That would mean even a mislynch takes it to 3/1, then 2/1, so a couple of opportunities to get it right...

Fair enough, let's see how it goes.

This will also be a nightless setup

wut? I didn't even observe that, so does it mean 'no lynch' is the strategy like Fake Passpart said?

 

[surendar]

I normally don't like to comment on the setup, its kinda on the scummy end of the spectrum for me. So, possibly incriminating myself...

Stats:
Currently 66% / 33% Town Favor.
Lynch (Flips town) 62.5% / 37.5%
Lynch (Flips scum) 75% / 25% (would mafia let this happen?)

Currently 66% / 33% Town Favor.
1 Mafia Bombs Town (5T 2M) 71% / 29%

What am I missing? Why would we lynch?
I suppose it depends how valuable you consider the K9 and town bomb, but I suggest, why bother lynching? Lets just keep talking and talking and No Lynching and grind the mafia bombs down until they do some work. If they take out a townie our odds kinda increase dramatically. I propose we let the mafia make the first move, that makes:

Day 1 - 6T / 3M - Assume mafia bombs town.
Day 2 - 5T / 2M - Assume mafia bombs town.
Day 3 - 4T / 1M - Mafia have no kill power

Worst case scenario, the 2 bombs kill K9 and Town bomb. That leave a 4/1 Vanilla game, thats still pretty good odds with a few days of talking.
Best case scenario, the 2 bombs kill vanilla townies, That leaves a 4/1 game with k9 and bomb...[DOUBLEPOST=1497362526][/DOUBLEPOST]I am predicating that post on the Godfather not having a nightkill though? or is a godfather kill 'normal' and not 'special'?

Did I understand right, you are basically asking townies to do nothing & have Mafia Goon alive and giving him more chances to win?
What if you are the Goon and townies follow your lead and you end up killing one by one from Day 3. Just saying. This is even having cons of loosing the K9 unit from town.

I would rather be looking to see ways of how we can use the town bomb + K9 unit as added advantage to keep blocking Mafia's abilities as this game has no night kill abilities and you need to do everything in day.

FOS on Fake Passport in trying to insist town from doing nothing for first 2 days.

 

[Fake Passport]

(1)Did I understand right, you are basically asking townies to do nothing & have Mafia Goon alive and giving him more chances to win?
(2)What if you are the Goon and townies follow your lead and you end up killing one by one from Day 3. Just saying. This is even having cons of loosing the K9 unit from town.

(3)I would rather be looking to see ways of how we can use the town bomb + K9 unit as added advantage to keep blocking Mafia's abilities as this game has no night kill abilities and you need to do everything in day.

(4)FOS on Fake Passport in trying to insist town from doing nothing for first 2 days.

1. Mafia Goon cant kill, bombs can. Look at the stats, the BEST thing IMO for town is for the bombs to strike Day 1 and Day 2. Look at the percentages. Or flip the thought and game out a situation where mafia have bombs late in the game and town has had a couple of mislynches.

2. Goon cant kill. If town follows my lead, well either get the mafia bombs to go off or be modkilled for inactivity. If I was mafia I sure as hell would want the game to get to better than 4/1.

3. Sure - we are all talking. If the days go on for as long as I think, there's going to be plenty of info for town to use later on. In my ideal situation, the mafia bombs go off. The K9 can then investigate the townie that claims to be bomb and confirm it and you will pretty much have a hammer on mafia, but that requires the game to go probably more perfectly than it will.

4. I say we No Lynch, that is not the same as doing nothing, see (3)

So atm, I have CK and surendar as anti town
Assuming im right, someone else run the numbers....

 

[surendar]

@Fake Passport -
I don't go by %s, they keep changing based on actions and events. I was referring more about loosing 2 town people irrespective of end outcome where you have good blocking abilities with K9 unit.
Thing that you are not even taking them seriously, is more of anti-town trying to insist everyone to follow your lead just because you have % of odd.

I never told' Goon is having killing ability, ready my post again. If you are a goon, town followed your lead & you would have executed your strategy very well without getting blocked by K9. And after Day 2, you will just have one good and set of townies where you are most likely to continue insisting your lead and start killing people.

My FOS remains. You are clearly dominant in asking town not to do anything because of those %(stats) instead of playing the game and start exploring who is who.[DOUBLEPOST=1497366528][/DOUBLEPOST]Adding more to that line to convey what I meant - "Thing that you are not even taking them seriously". Them as in, K9 unit and town bomb where you clearly said you are okay to have them lost as well based on your worst case %s(stats).
Instead of thinking how we can leverage them, you are okay to loose them as well which I am not finding it good for a town.

 

[surendar]

Clarifying "start killing people" phrase as I can't edit my post - meaning, lynching them with deception that you are town* My bad, I should have typed it clear.

 

[Fake Passport]

You are free to FOS me, I don't think I'm going to change your mind, ill let others weigh in on the numbers and strategy though [DOUBLEPOST=1497367820][/DOUBLEPOST]Well, for the time being at least...