Expert Cop Mafia - Mafia (ContrarianUmp) wins!

[zwarrior]

From the above posts-

ContUmp- Rudolph (Town)
asprin- PresidentEvil (Mafia)-
zwarrior- PresidentEvil (Town)-
Rudolph- ContUmp(Town)
PresidentEvil- asprin (Town)-

My analysis- Case-1 * assume sodium is not mafia

1. asprin is a townie. Because He is the only one to get his investigation result as mafia. So, he is paranoid cop. 100%
2. Sodium investigated asprin and got the result as townie. ( which is true - asprin is a townie ). So, he is either a sane cop or naive cop.
3. I investigated sodium and got result as sodium is townie. (if point 2 is correct then this point is correct too) So, I am also a sane cop or naive cop.

4. Now comes the two people- Only people remaining are - insane cop and mafia

5. Rudolph- investigated umpire and got result as townie.
6. Umpire investigated rudolph and got result as townie.

Now look at 4,5 and 6. 4th point matches with 5 and 6. Because one of them is mafia. Insane cop always tell opposite. SO, insane cop investigated mafia and got result as townie. Plus point here is that umpire investigated rudolph and rudolph investigated umpire. SO one is insane cop and The other person is mafia. And the mafia just wrote something and said the other person as townie.

Case-2 * assume sodium is mafia

1- same as above case ( about asprin's role)

2- If sodium is mafia, then--------- I know I am a cop.( You guys don't believe me, I understand. But read fully.) So, that means me and asprin are cops. Now, that means countump and rudolph are cops too , and then one of them is sane cop and other is naive cop because they investigated each other and got the result as townie (they cant be insane cop because for this case, i have assumed sodium is mafia. so, if they had investigated each other and if one of them is insane cop, one of the result should be 'mafia')

3. That means I am insane cop because I got my result to sod's investigation as Townie.

So either sodium is mafia if we consider case-2 and

If we consider case 1- one of countump or rudolph is mafia.

I am open to anyone's questions and discussion.

 

[asprin]

What are we doing in regards to lynching?

Honestly speaking, the permutations and combinations are too big to come to a conclusion on Day 1. zwarrior's post is a start though unless someone objects to the analysis made by him.

 

[RUDI]

From the above posts-

ContUmp- Rudolph (Town)
asprin- PresidentEvil (Mafia)-
zwarrior- PresidentEvil (Town)-
Rudolph- ContUmp(Town)
PresidentEvil- asprin (Town)-

My analysis- Case-1 * assume sodium is not mafia

1. asprin is a townie. Because He is the only one to get his investigation result as mafia. So, he is paranoid cop. 100%
2. Sodium investigated asprin and got the result as townie. ( which is true - asprin is a townie ). So, he is either a sane cop or naive cop.
3. I investigated sodium and got result as sodium is townie. (if point 2 is correct then this point is correct too) So, I am also a sane cop or naive cop.

4. Now comes the two people- Only people remaining are - insane cop and mafia

5. Rudolph- investigated umpire and got result as townie.
6. Umpire investigated rudolph and got result as townie.

Now look at 4,5 and 6. 4th point matches with 5 and 6. Because one of them is mafia. Insane cop always tell opposite. SO, insane cop investigated mafia and got result as townie. Plus point here is that umpire investigated rudolph and rudolph investigated umpire. SO one is insane cop and The other person is mafia. And the mafia just wrote something and said the other person as townie.

Case-2 * assume sodium is mafia

1- same as above case ( about asprin's role)

2- If sodium is mafia, then--------- I know I am a cop.( You guys don't believe me, I understand. But read fully.) So, that means me and asprin are cops. Now, that means countump and rudolph are cops too , and then one of them is sane cop and other is naive cop because they investigated each other and got the result as townie (they cant be insane cop because for this case, i have assumed sodium is mafia. so, if they had investigated each other and if one of them is insane cop, one of the result should be 'mafia')

3. That means I am insane cop because I got my result to sod's investigation as Townie.

So either sodium is mafia if we consider case-2 and

If we consider case 1- one of countump or rudolph is mafia.

I am open to anyone's questions and discussion.

Interesting I do not even know what kind of cop I am. ^ (bold), are we not all cops?

 

[zwarrior]

Interesting I do not even know what kind of cop I am. ^ (bold), are we not all cops?

Read the first post. No one knows what kind of cops we are.

 

[asprin]

I do not even know what kind of cop I am. ^ (bold), are we not all cops?

Wait, are you saying you're not aware of the setup (Cops vs Mafia breakup)?

 

[Fake Passport]

Wait, are you saying you're not aware of the setup (Cops vs Mafia breakup)?

Yea, that sounded bloody suss to me too.

Zwarrior analysis sounds pretty good, assuming everyone (except the mafia) has told the truth, that should be pretty evident tomorrow with investigations.

I think aspirin as paranoid is pretty set (same truth assumption). It makes all his investigations kinda useless as he's always going to return mafia.

 

[asprin]

I think aspirin as paranoid is pretty set (same truth assumption). It makes all his investigations kinda useless as he's always going to return mafia.

Now that I revisit the analysis, why is it assumed that I'm paranoid? I can also be insane right, as insane cop gets affiliation in reverse?

 

[Targaryen]

From the above posts-

ContUmp- Rudolph (Town)
asprin- PresidentEvil (Mafia)-
zwarrior- PresidentEvil (Town)-
Rudolph- ContUmp(Town)
PresidentEvil- asprin (Town)-

My analysis- Case-1 * assume sodium is not mafia

1. asprin is a townie. Because He is the only one to get his investigation result as mafia. So, he is paranoid cop. 100%
2. Sodium investigated asprin and got the result as townie. ( which is true - asprin is a townie ). So, he is either a sane cop or naive cop.
3. I investigated sodium and got result as sodium is townie. (if point 2 is correct then this point is correct too) So, I am also a sane cop or naive cop.

4. Now comes the two people- Only people remaining are - insane cop and mafia

5. Rudolph- investigated umpire and got result as townie.
6. Umpire investigated rudolph and got result as townie.

Now look at 4,5 and 6. 4th point matches with 5 and 6. Because one of them is mafia. Insane cop always tell opposite. SO, insane cop investigated mafia and got result as townie. Plus point here is that umpire investigated rudolph and rudolph investigated umpire. SO one is insane cop and The other person is mafia. And the mafia just wrote something and said the other person as townie.

Case-2 * assume sodium is mafia

1- same as above case ( about asprin's role)

2- If sodium is mafia, then--------- I know I am a cop.( You guys don't believe me, I understand. But read fully.) So, that means me and asprin are cops. Now, that means countump and rudolph are cops too , and then one of them is sane cop and other is naive cop because they investigated each other and got the result as townie (they cant be insane cop because for this case, i have assumed sodium is mafia. so, if they had investigated each other and if one of them is insane cop, one of the result should be 'mafia')

3. That means I am insane cop because I got my result to sod's investigation as Townie.

So either sodium is mafia if we consider case-2 and

If we consider case 1- one of countump or rudolph is mafia.

I am open to anyone's questions and discussion.

Great analysis there. I think the case 1 should be considered. I investigated asprin and result was town. When two of them investigated me and it was two different results you can't just consider the result of one player while it might be wrong and the other one maybe right. If I was the mafia then I wouldn't have suggested an open strategy of bringing Mafia into light earlier today (check my previous post).
I will lynch contrarianump as he is completely going for no Lynch strategy so that he can silently kill someone tonight. It is a small open setup and we all know that if we get one thing right then obviously we will win within a day.

Lynch: ContrarianUmp

 

[Fake Passport]

Now that I revisit the analysis, why is it assumed that I'm paranoid? I can also be insane right, as insane cop gets affiliation in reverse?

Because there has to be paranoid...

 

[zwarrior]

Now that I revisit the analysis, why is it assumed that I'm paranoid? I can also be insane right, as insane cop gets affiliation in reverse?

There has to be a paranoid in this setup. Paranoid's results are always mafia/negative to townies. And here, only your result is mafia. So, you are paranoid for sure.

 

[Fake Passport]

Just to clarify asprin, you are right in there are multiple sanities that could return a mafia result, we know there has to be a paranoid mafia, so only 1 mafia result means it has to be you. (Assuming telling truth)

Great analysis there. I think the case 1 should be considered. I investigated asprin and result was town. When two of them investigated me and it was two different results you can't just consider the result of one player while it might be wrong and the other one maybe right. If I was the mafia then I wouldn't have suggested an open strategy of bringing Mafia into light earlier today (check my previous post).
I will lynch contrarianump as he is completely going for no Lynch strategy so that he can silently kill someone tonight. It is a small open setup and we all know that if we get one thing right then obviously we will win within a day.

Lynch: ContrarianUmp

Haha, fair enough, I think it's pretty obvious that you would push the scenario that doesn't have you as mafia.

Everyone knows I advocate for a timely game. It's my thing, check last game when I knew Rudi was town and still voted for him to push it along.

I'm also in a unique situation with the championship, the games are being sorted Wed and I could be in a game anytime from then. I need this to be over and quickly, so yeah I pushed it along..

My vote stands...

 

[RUDI]

asprin- PresidentEvil (Mafia)-
zwarrior- PresidentEvil (Town)-

Someone is lying here.

Wait, are you saying you're not aware of the setup (Cops vs Mafia breakup)?

Expert Cop Mafia - Title

Yea, that sounded bloody suss to me too.

Ask a question and your a suspect, hectic!

Clearly their is no conclusive evidence yet, only suspicions. @ContrarianUmp why do you so quickly go with a NO Lynch mentality , let's do some more investigations etc. before we end day 1?

 

[asprin]

Ask a question and your a suspect, hectic!

Your question was bizarre. You had assumed that all 5 are cops. The OP of this thread itself listed out the roles. Are you saying you simply joined in without reading it?

PS: Bold/Increased font size doesn't help your case. If anything, it adds to more suspicion.

 

[zwarrior]

Great analysis there. I think the case 1 should be considered. I investigated asprin and result was town. When two of them investigated me and it was two different results you can't just consider the result of one player while it might be wrong and the other one maybe right. If I was the mafia then I wouldn't have suggested an open strategy of bringing Mafia into light earlier today (check my previous post).
I will lynch contrarianump as he is completely going for no Lynch strategy so that he can silently kill someone tonight. It is a small open setup and we all know that if we get one thing right then obviously we will win within a day.

Lynch: ContrarianUmp

Even I noticed that point. But the thing to worry is, if we get the wrong guy, then only 3 of them will remain alive and it will be difficult to further investigate and mafia will have upperhand. I don't think we should end the day as umpire is suggesting. We need to investigate more.[DOUBLEPOST=1493119940][/DOUBLEPOST]

Someone is lying here.



Expert Cop Mafia - Title



Ask a question and your a suspect, hectic!

Clearly their is no conclusive evidence yet, only suspicions. @ContrarianUmp why do you so quickly go with a NO Lynch mentality , let's do some more investigations etc. before we end day 1?

Why do you think someone is lying ?

 

[Fake Passport]

Clearly their is no conclusive evidence yet, only suspicions. @ContrarianUmp why do you so quickly go with a NO Lynch mentality , let's do some more investigations etc. before we end day 1?

It almost sounds ... Weird....

In the one paragraph, you explicitly state theres no conclusive evidence and then question why I push for no lynch.

I address that above (it may have been an timing overlap). Plus to me I agree it's not entirely conclusive. I think the whole game will open up tomorrow, well have investigations etc that will blow it open and generate certainties rather than speculations...